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Aluminum prices mainly fluctuate in a wide range
- China Aluminium Network
- Post Time: 2022/12/16
- Click Amount: 1023
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【Aluminum Road Network】
News on December 14; after a rise that lasted for nearly a month, aluminum prices began to see a major correction this week. We believe that the focus of market transactions may be shifting. The previous market trading logic lies in the continuous promotion of macro-good news, including the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy shift and the continuous release of domestic favorable policies, which makes the market’s expectations for next year’s demand improvement continue to strengthen. In the context of the continuous depletion of electrolytic aluminum stocks, the weakening of consumption cannot be directly falsified, and aluminum prices have gone out of a trend. The end of the new year is approaching, and some small and medium-sized enterprises have plans to take holidays in advance. It is expected that the operating rate will drop in late December, and domestic consumption is hardly optimistic. Overseas, affected by the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the demand continued to decline. On the whole, the weakening of demand before the year will be a high probability event, and the pressure on aluminum prices still exists.
Focus on the Fed's interest rate hike path guidance
Data showed that inflationary pressures in the United States continued to fall. In November, the CPI increased by 7.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected 7.3% and the previous value of 7.7%, and the year-on-year increase was the lowest since January this year. The core CPI increased by 6% year-on-year, expected to be 6.1%, a drop from the previous value of 6.3%. The slowdown in inflation this time is mainly due to the large drop in the price of second-hand cars and energy costs in the sub-items, while food and housing still increased slightly from the previous month. Considering that the inflection point of inflation in October made the market have already significantly traded the expectation of the Fed’s rate hike slowdown, the performance of the inflation data in November only strengthened this expectation, so the impact on commodity and asset prices was relatively limited.
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