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Aluminum: The contradiction between supply and demand is not obvious, and the futures price will fluctuate in a range
- China Aluminium Network
- Post Time: 2022/12/5
- Click Amount: 626
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【Aluminum Road Network】
Shanghai Aluminum ushered in a wave of rebound after November, and the highest contract futures price of the main force hit 19,245 yuan/ton. After entering the second half of the year, Shanghai Aluminum's upward momentum weakened and fell into a pattern of shocks and consolidation. In view of the limited positive factors in the later period, it is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate in a range in the future market.
1. The release of the RRR cut signal alleviates the downward pressure on the domestic economy
On the macro level, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on December 5, 2022. The RRR cut reflects the forward-looking nature of the monetary policy, demonstrates the strategic determination of the monetary policy, is conducive to stabilizing market expectations, and has important policy significance. Although this RRR cut is a comprehensive RRR cut, it does not mean that the monetary policy has shifted, and the later monetary policy will still maintain a prudent tone. If the MLF cuts interest rates in the later years, the policy intensity next year is expected to increase. As far as the impact of Shanghai Aluminum is concerned, the RRR cut will help to hedge the downward pressure on the domestic economy to a certain extent, but the positive impact of the RRR cut on Shanghai Aluminum is limited.
2. Domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum rebounded slightly
At present, the domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum has rebounded slightly. Recently, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Sichuan has been slightly restored. However, due to the shortage of electricity during the dry season, it is expected that it will be difficult to reach full production by the end of this year; Speed ??up; the reduction of 80,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production in Henan has been completed, and the time for resumption of production has not yet been determined; the progress of new production in Guizhou and Inner Mongolia has not met expectations. On the whole, under the influence of the coexistence of increase and decrease, the operation of domestic electrolytic aluminum Source:
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