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Shanghai Aluminum Weekly | Market expectations improve, and the center of gravity of aluminum prices moves up
- China Aluminium Network
- Post Time: 2022/11/15
- Click Amount: 671
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【Aluminum Road Network】
Summary
Summary:
profitable:
1. The U.S. CPI annual rate recorded 7.7% in October without seasonal adjustment, lower than the expected 8%. The seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate was recorded at 6.3%, lower than the expected 6.5%. The turning point of US inflation has appeared, and the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has slowed down. The U.S. dollar fell sharply, and bulk commodities collectively rebounded.
2. Domestic epidemic prevention and control policies have been optimized again, and market sentiment has improved significantly. The performance of the equity market was relatively outstanding, and bulk commodities collectively rebounded. It should be noted that the improvement on the policy side is not achieved overnight. The current epidemic situation in many places across the country still has an impact on business operations and cargo transportation.
3. LME currently does not recommend prohibiting the delivery of Russian metals. The night before the news was announced, Lun Aluminum had risen by more than 5%, but Shanghai Aluminum did not follow suit. One possibility is that the holders who sold a large amount of short-selling aluminum in Lun in the early stage now cover some long positions to obtain some Rusal spot, and the possible follow-up situation is that LME inventories will fall again. In the short term, the news is too much, but in the long run, it has little effect on the price.
Bad news:
1. The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States in November was 54.7, a four-month low, which was significantly lower than the expected 59.5. Longer-term inflation expectations rose to 3.0%, the highest in nearly five months. Higher long-term inflation expectations will put more pressure on the Fed to tighten firmly.
2. Terminal demand has not yet shown a significant improvement, in which the production and sales of automobiles in October fell slightly month-on-month. The transaction volume of new and second-hand housing in 29 major cities fell by about 10% week-on-week. And the epidemic Source:
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