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Shanghai Aluminum Monthly Report | Risk aversion increased, aluminum prices fell sharply
- China Aluminium Network
- Post Time: 2022/11/1
- Click Amount: 813
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【Aluminum Road Network】
Completion of this report | October 30, 2022
Summary
profitable:
1. In the third quarter of 2022, China's real GDP increased by 3.9% year-on-year, slightly higher than the statistical market expectation of 3.7%. In the third quarter, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year, up 4.1 percentage points from the second quarter. In the third quarter, industrial production withstood the impact of unfavorable factors such as the epidemic and power cuts, and the overall trend of recovery continued.
2. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation in various places on transportation efficiency, the arrival of mainstream consumer goods is relatively low, the inventory remains in the state of destocking, and the supply in the spot market is slightly tight. It is expected that the increase in arrivals in the market next week will be limited, and various consumption areas will still maintain a low inventory state.
Bad:
1. The U.S. PCE price index in September increased by 6.2% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 6.3%, and slowed down for the third consecutive month; the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy prices) increased by 5.15% year-on-year in September, lower than The expected 5.2%, the second straight month of acceleration. The current US inflation problem has not eased, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 points in November has increased again, and the market has increased risk aversion.
2. The alumina market has a strong bearish atmosphere, and the price maintains a downward trend. Although Shanxi and Henan regions suffered losses, some alumina plants stopped production. However, the newly-launched production capacity in Shandong has gradually increased, and the supply of alumina is still in a state of slight excess. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum dropped slightly.
3. There are still concerns in the market about Russian aluminum ingots being sanctioned by the United States or LME, which makes the LME warehouse Source:
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