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Uncertainty over Russian supply weighs on aluminium market
- China Aluminium Network
- Post Time: 2022/9/27
- Click Amount: 691
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【Aluminum Road Network】
When aluminum prices hit an all-time high of $4,073.50 a tonne in March, it was a direct response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The market is pricing in potential losses in the metal from Russia's Rusal, which produced 3.76 million tonnes in 2021.
Aluminum traders saw the film back in 2018, when U.S. sanctions on Rusal's owner Oleg Deripaska caused massive upheaval along the entire length of the global supply chain.
This time, however, Rusal did not impose sanctions on Rusal's aluminium for what the Kremlin said was a "special military operation" in Ukraine.
In fact, Russian supplies are showing every sign of an increase as Rusal expands its new smelter and looks to export more of the metal when domestic demand weakens.
But who would buy all this aluminum?
Self-sanctions next year could disrupt normal sales channels due to the potential flow of Russian metals into the last market, the London Metal Exchange (LME).
fill the raw material gap
The only government to take direct action against Rusal is Australia, which in March banned exports of bauxite and intermediate alumina to the country.
This effectively freezes RUSAL's alumina purchase flow from the Queensland Alumina JV. Another important alumina supply channel was also closed by the closure of Ukraine's Nikolayev refinery in March.
However, the alumina gap is being filled by Chinese producers who Source:
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