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There are many aluminum issues, the game of power curtailment, production reduction and insufficient demand
- China Aluminium Network
- Post Time: 2022/9/16
- Click Amount: 680
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【Aluminum Road Network】
About the Author:
Xiao Yanli, Nonferrous Metal Researcher of Zhonghui Futures, Master of International Business, Intermediate Economist, focuses on the research of copper, aluminum and zinc nonferrous metal industry chain, is good at analyzing the internal logic of variety operation from fundamentals and macro data, believes that time and trend guide price fluctuations, and affect production and production. Trading companies have rich experience in using futures hedging.
report summary
In 2022, under the triple La Ni?a phenomenon, the world will be hot and cold at the same time, and the global power will be in emergency. As the high temperature in summer fades, electricity in Sichuan Province has gradually recovered, and it is expected that the production capacity of one million tons of electrolytic aluminum in the province will be fully restored by the end of October. The power curtailment and production reduction of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan has initially been implemented, reducing production capacity by 10%. With the arrival of the dry season in autumn and winter, the scale of power curtailment and production reduction in the province may be expanded to 20%-30%, which will affect the production capacity of 1-1.5 million tons.
Overseas electricity prices have soared, and the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in Europe has accumulated to about 1.538 million tons. The cost of electricity at home and abroad is very different. The cost of electrolytic aluminum in France and Germany is nearly three times that of the LME aluminum price. Under the background that the overseas electrolytic aluminum smelting cost is much higher than the aluminum price and the smelters are experiencing deep losses, more smelters will join the production reduction sequence, which will increase the external dependence of the European aluminum processing industry.
Looking back on history, Yunnan Province, as the biggest winner of the “North-South Aluminum Movement” in the electrolytic aluminum industry, counterattacked and became the first electrolytic aluminum province in China. The low-cost hydropower in Yunnan Province is both an advantage and a weakness. Due to the seasonal dry season and many natural factors, the stability is insufficient under the background of global warming and frequent extreme weather. Yunnan Source:
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